Self-deception and confirmation bias

Program / Course 2: The Solitary Christian in Depth / Lesson 5.2

What you will learn

• Define self-deception and confirmation bias, and explain how they affect people who study alone.
• Connect the biblical teaching on the deceitful heart with modern findings about biased reasoning.
• Describe the desert tradition’s practice of discernment of thoughts.
• Apply practical habits that make you less likely to deceive yourself.

The big idea

People are very good at believing what they want to believe, and at not noticing that they are doing so. Scripture calls the heart deceitful. Modern psychology describes confirmation bias, the habit of seeking, favoring and remembering evidence that agrees with what one already thinks. These tendencies affect everyone, and they work most freely on a person who studies and prays alone, with no one to ask the awkward question. The remedy is not despair about the mind, but a set of habits: seeking disagreement, writing things down, waiting, and asking others.

Key terms

Self-deception

Coming to believe something false about oneself or one’s situation because the truth is unwelcome.

Confirmation bias

The tendency to look for, notice and remember evidence that supports what one already believes, and to overlook evidence against it.

Motivated reasoning

Reasoning that works toward a conclusion one wants, and then treats it as if it were found neutrally.

Rationalization

Giving a respectable reason for something one did or wants to do for another, less respectable reason.

Discernment of thoughts

In the desert tradition, the practice of noticing where an inner suggestion comes from and where it leads, and testing it with an elder.

Steelman

To state the strongest version of a view you disagree with, as opposed to a weak version that is easy to defeat.

Background

The prophet Jeremiah writes, “The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?” (Jeremiah 17:9). The psalmist prays, “Who can understand his errors? cleanse thou me from secret faults” (Psalm 19:12). Proverbs warns that “The way of a fool is right in his own eyes” (Proverbs 12:15) and that there is more hope of a fool than of a man “wise in his own conceit” (Proverbs 26:12). The Bible therefore takes it for granted that a person may not see his own condition.

Modern psychology has studied this at length. Researchers have found that people tend to look for confirming evidence, to judge arguments they like as stronger than arguments they dislike, and to hold their views with more confidence than their evidence supports. Not all findings in this field are equally firm, and the terms are used loosely, but the basic pattern is well documented and widely accepted. It matches what the religious writers observed long before.

Step-by-step explanation

Step 1: How self-deception works

Self-deception rarely involves a flat lie. It works by selection and emphasis. You give weight to the verses that support your plan and little to those that complicate it. You remember the times you were right. You describe people who disagree in their weakest form. You choose books and voices that agree with you, and then you point to them as if they were independent confirmation.

Another trick is to treat strong feeling as evidence. A conclusion that feels deeply certain, that brings a sense of peace or of excitement, may be true, but the feeling is a poor guide. People feel equal certainty about opposite things.

Step 2: Why the solitary is exposed

In ordinary life, other people provide a rough check. They raise eyebrows, ask questions, and disagree. A person who studies alone may have no such check. Add the internet, where one can find a source for almost any conclusion, and the problem grows. A person can assemble a library that agrees with every one of his views.

None of this means that solitary study is unreliable. It means that solitary study needs deliberate methods to do what other people would otherwise do.

Step 3: The desert tradition on discernment

The desert writers knew the problem well. John Cassian devoted a conference to discernment (Conference 2, with Abba Moses). He said that many monks fell into extremes, such as fasting beyond their strength, because they trusted their own judgment, and that those who open their thoughts to an elder are protected. A recurring warning in desert writings, including the Life of Antony, is that the evil one may disguise himself in the form of good, so that a person is led to ruin by a plan that looks like zeal.

From this the tradition developed the practice of discerning thoughts: stopping to ask where a thought came from, what it is likely to produce, and what an experienced person would say about it. Ignatius of Loyola in the sixteenth century developed a similar set of rules in his Spiritual Exercises. Whatever one thinks of the language of spirits, the practice of pausing and testing impulses is widely useful.

Step 4: Habits that help

Several habits reduce the problem. Write down your conclusions and the reasons for them, and look at them again after a month. Ask what would change your mind, and if the answer is nothing, treat that as a warning. Read the best case against your view, written by someone who holds it. Try to state an opposing view so well that its holders would say you had it right. Notice which arguments you accept quickly and which you resist, and ask why. Wait before acting on a dramatic conclusion. And ask at least one other person to challenge you.

Keep a record of times you changed your mind. A person who has never changed his mind is probably not looking.

Step 5: Humility without paralysis

Knowing that you may be wrong does not mean you cannot believe anything. The Christian tradition holds that it is possible to know God and the central truths of the faith, and also that every individual’s grasp is partial: “For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face” (1 Corinthians 13:12). The right attitude is firm commitment to what is well supported and openness on what is not. It is also a reason to give thanks that God does not depend on the accuracy of your reasoning to save you.

1. On what question am I most certain, and what is my evidence?
2. What would persuade me that I am wrong about it?
3. What is the best argument against my view, and who makes it?
4. Which sources do I read because they agree with me?
5. When did I last change my mind about something important?
6. Who is allowed to tell me my reasoning is poor?

Examples

Different perspectives

Catholic

Catholic spiritual teaching, from Ignatius of Loyola and the tradition of spiritual direction, stresses discernment of spirits and the need for a director. The Church teaches that conscience must be formed, and that a person is obliged to follow a sincere conscience that has been formed carefully.

Orthodox

Orthodox ascetical teaching says that a person should not rely on his own judgment in spiritual life, and should tell his thoughts to a spiritual father. The danger is called prelest, spiritual delusion, in which a person mistakes his own imagination for grace.

Protestant

Protestants teach that all people are affected by sin in their reasoning and that Scripture and the community of believers are needed to correct them. The Puritans in particular wrote at length on self-examination and warned that the heart deceives. Many modern evangelicals recommend accountability partners for this reason.

Scholarly

Cognitive psychologists have shown consistent patterns of biased reasoning in many settings. They also note that these patterns are reduced when people have to justify their views to others who disagree, which supports the value of outside challenge.

Why it matters

Almost every error in this course can come from self-deception, and its victims rarely know it. Habits of checking cost little and protect much. A person who has them can study alone with more safety, and a person who lacks them is at risk even with good intentions.

Common misunderstandings

Knowledge check

Think it through

1. On which subject are you most sure you are right, and how would you know if you were not?
2. What is a belief that you changed, and what changed it?
3. Which source do you read most often that you have never seen criticized?
4. How might your wishes affect the way you read Scripture?

Independent assignment

The best case against me

Choose one belief or practice that matters to you. In your own notebook, write 350 to 500 words. First state your view and your reasons. Then write the strongest case against it, using the best sources you can find from those who hold the opposite view. State what evidence would change your mind. Finally, name one person who could read both halves and tell you honestly whether the second is fair.

Further study

• John Cassian, The Conferences Read Conference 2, on discretion.
• Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Fallacies A guide to common errors of reasoning.
• Benedicta Ward, trans., The Sayings of the Desert Fathers: The Alphabetical Collection Find sayings that warn about being led astray by apparent goods.
• Thomas a Kempis, The Imitation of Christ Read Book 1 on knowing oneself.
• Jeremiah 17:9 The heart is deceitful.
• Psalm 19:12 Cleanse me from secret faults.
• Proverbs 26:12 Wise in his own conceit.
• 1 Corinthians 13:12 Now we see through a glass, darkly.